Fayetteville State University (FSU) Center for Defense and Homeland Security (CDHS) Scholars, Dr. Neal Wagner and Dr. Robert Toguchi delivered key panel presentations on “Creating a Predictive Analysis Model for Contingency Operation” at the 8th Annual Conflict Prevention, Peacekeeping, and Stability Conference in Alexandria, Virginia on February 13, 2013.
Both professors addressed the key questions of: Can we postulate the potential for creating a successful model through the use of artificial intelligence? Can we ensure accuracy to garner testable trust in the data represented? Can you provide projections on the future of predictive analysis modeling?
Dr. Wagner highlighted recent advances in the field of supply chain management modeling as it applies to the food service industry within Australia. He noted that the program he developed allowed the wholesale food distribution company for nearly 70 warehouses to reduce its manual ordering and shipment personnel from nearly 100 employees to five. Near -real time automated software program capabilities tied directly into individual store buying preferences and made it possible to dynamically replicate store inventories and projected purchases.
Dr. Toguchi discussed significant improvements being made in agent-based analytic models used by the U.S. Combatant Commands. Based on his experiences at the U.S. Pacific Command, he articulated how the Commander, USPACOM refined and optimized course of action (COA) selection for real world contingencies using an agent-based modeling program. Predictive analytic tools can reduce the potential for trial-and-error COA selections in a dynamic and changing contingency situation. These tools can provide a non-lethal approach to achieve sustainability in conflict prevention and stability. Since 2006, these types of predictive analytic capabilities have spread to other Combatant Commands to augment the capabilities of decision makers in dealing with complex environments.
Audience questions expressed interest in: can we anticipate future Arab Springs, can predictive analysis inform the development of the U.S. National Military Strategy, and will these tools be able to assist with post-conflict reconstruction? In all three cases, all panelists noted the high potential for predictive analytical tools to significantly improve how the U.S. government accomplishes these types of missions.
About the Center for Defense and Homeland Security:
The Center for Defense and Homeland Security (CDHS) which is designed to prepare the next generation of national security and STEM workforce by addressing issues of compelling priority to the security of the United States – Cyber Security; Chemical and Biological Counter-Measurers; Critical Infrastructure Protection & Catastrophic Disaster Management; and C4ISR (Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance.) This interdisciplinary initiative provides valuable research experiences for faculty and students at industry partners such as MIT Lincoln Lab, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Last summer, six young African American male students from the departments of Chemistry, Biology, Mathematics, and Computer Science were engage in summer research at MIT Lincoln Lab, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Additionally, one MIS faculty, and another Computer Science faculty received Senior Scientist appointments at Lincoln and ORNL, respectively. Other CDHS industry partners include: Lockheed Martin, IBM, Booz Allen Hamilton, DuPont, General Dynamics, Salient Federal Solutions, US Coast Guard, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, RLM Communications, IEM, K3 Enterprises, NC State, Tec-Masters, Inc., Cognition, LLC, UNC Coastal Hazards DHS Center of Excellence, and Cumberland County Schools. Over the past year, CDHS faculty have collaborated with industry partners, K-12, and Community Colleges to apply for grants in excess of $30M (NSF, DOD, DHS), and developed a contract business model to team with industry to secure external funding for the University.
FSU is the second-oldest public institution in North Carolina. A member of the University of North Carolina System, FSU has nearly 6,000 students and offers degrees in more than 60 undergraduate and graduate degree programs.
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